"The one certainty is that the 2016 campaign will take place in the eighth year of a
Democratic administration. When a party has held the presidency for at least eight years,
political scientist Alan Abramowitz has shown, voters start to think that it is time to give
the other party a chance. Since 1948, incumbent parties in their first term have won seven
times and lost only once (1980). But after two or more consecutive terms, they have lost
seven times and won twice (1948 and 198
.
The overall pattern should give Republicans some reason for hope. But the 1948 and 1988
results mean that Democrats should not despair.
And the Democrats have other things going for them. Demographic changes, especially
the diminishing dominance of the white vote, may work to their advantage. Except for the
Johnson landslide of 1964, Republicans won the white vote in every presidential election
between 1952 and 2012. But because of the growth of the Hispanic and Asian populations,
as well as increased turnout among African Americans, the white share of the electorate has
been shrinking.
Change in the electorate helped Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, and will probably help the
Democratic nominee in 2016. It does not, however, ensure victory. Such trends move slowly
and are subject to year-to-year fluctuation. There is no guarantee that the Democratic candidate
will be able to inspire the same record-high African American turnout as President Obama."
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