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What the polls say
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Shadow
November 5, 2012, 12:14pm Report to Moderator
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Romney winning independents 59%-35%...
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November 5, 2012, 4:52pm Report to Moderator

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Latest National Polls

ABC News/Washington Post: Obama 50%, Romney 47%
American Research Group: Obama 49%, Romney 49%
Democracy Corps: Obama 49%, Romney 45%
Gallup: Romney 49%, Obama 48%
Monmouth: Obama 48%, Romney 48%
Public Policy Polling: Obama 50%, Romney 48%
Rasmussen: Romney 49%, Obama 48%
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48%, Romney 46%
UPI/CVoter: Obama 49%, Romney 47%


The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral
philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.

John Kenneth Galbraith

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Quoted from Shadow

Romney winning independents 59%-35%...


Independents VS Centrists


"The final polls are out and behind the national horserace is a fascinating dynamic -- Mitt
Romney is narrowly winning independent voters while President Obama is winning centrist
voters by a nearly 20-point margin."

"This is significant because in past elections independents and centrist voters have been
largely synonymous-overlapping cohorts, reflecting the belief of many independents that the
two parties are too polarized and disproportionately dominated by their respective special interests.
But what I think we're seeing this year is the extended impact of the tea party - a growth in
the number of independent conservatives that has moved the overall independent voting block
slightly to the right. In turn, centrist voters are more likely to vote for Obama precisely because
of the polarizing impact of the tea party and the intransigence of many conservative congressmen
when it came to working in a good faith spirit of principled compromise with the Obama administration."




The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral
philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.

John Kenneth Galbraith

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Shadow
November 6, 2012, 7:28am Report to Moderator
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CBS is out with a new poll of the critical swing states Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. In each, Romney posts significant leads among Independent voters. In Virginia, Romney leads Obama by a massive 21 points among Independents. In OH and FL, he leads by 5-6 points. If this lead holds through election day, he will not lose these states, based on past elections.

Romney also has big leads among those most likely to vote. He wins seniors, the most dependable voting demographic, by 13 points in VA, 11 points in FL and 9 points in OH. Again, if these trends hold, Romney will sweep all three states, according to CBS.   http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....t_voters_294840.html
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What the Polls Say???

Pretty much the majority of polls called it close to right... with the exception of two notable outliers  Rasmussen
and Gallup, who pretty much got it wrong.


The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral
philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.

John Kenneth Galbraith

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The Ten Worst Predictions Of The 2012 Election

1. Dick Morris: “This is going to be a landslide.” (For Romney)
2. Roger Kimball: “Obama is toast.”
3. Karl Rove: “At least 279 electoral votes.” (For Romney)
4. Peggy Noonan: “There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now.”
5. Larry Kudlow: “Yes, that’s right: 330 electoral votes.” (For Romney)
6. Fred Barnes: “Romney will be elected the 45th president of the United States.”
7. Michael Barone: “Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections.”
8. Dean Chambers: “The race has shifted profoundly in favor of Mitt Romney.”
9. Newt Gingrich: “A Romney landslide.”
10. Jim Cramer: “The presidential race is nowhere as close as the polls suggest.”

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2012/11/07/1140401/the-ten-worst-predictions-of-the-2012-election/


The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral
philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.

John Kenneth Galbraith

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The Most Accurate Polls
A Fordham University study ranked 28 polling firms on how their pre-election national surveys compared
to the results on Election Day.
The ranking:

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK

The two polls that the Right labeled as BIASED, turned out to be the most accurate


The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral
philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.

John Kenneth Galbraith

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