President Obama's lead over Governor Romney shrinks from 7 points in August to 2 points in September, according to the latest Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll.  Romney gains support from men, southern, rural, and Hispanic voters this month.



Q:  If the 2012 election for United States President were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote?

46% Democrat Barack Obama
44% Republican Mitt Romney
8% Not sure
2%   Refused

The TIPP Poll was conducted from September 4 to September 9 using traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples; sample Size: 808 Registered Voters nationwide, Margin of error - plus/minus 3.5 percentage points.

Party ID of sample:  In politics, do you consider yourself to be a DEMOCRAT, a REPUBLICAN, an INDEPENDENT, or something else?  Democrat(36%), Republican (31%), Independent/Other(30%),  Not sure/Refused(3%)

TIPP Poll Past Performance

The TIPP Poll was the most accurate presidential poll having come in #1 in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections.  


http://www.tipponline.com/pres.....-narrows-to-2-points

09/06/2012 -
09/10/2012     Reuters/Ipsos *      Obama      48.0       Romney      43.0      
               
09/07/2012 -
09/09/2012     ABC/WaPo      Obama      49.0       Romney      48.0      
               
09/07/2012 -
09/09/2012     CNN      Obama      52.0       Romney      46.0           
          
09/04/2012 -
09/09/2012     IBD/TIPP      Obama      46.0       Romney      44.0      
               
09/03/2012 -
09/09/2012     Gallup +      Obama      49.0       Romney      44.0           
          
09/07/2012 -
09/09/2012     Rasmussen +      Obama      50.0       Romney      45.0      

09/09/2012     Reuters/Ipsos *      Obama      47.0       Romney      43.0      
               
09/02/2012 -
09/08/2012     Gallup +      Obama      49.0       Romney      44.0      
               
09/06/2012 -
09/08/2012     Rasmussen +      Obama      49.0       Romney      45.0      
               
09/04/2012 -
09/08/2012     Reuters/Ipsos *      Obama      47.0       Romney      43.0      
               
09/01/2012 -
09/07/2012     Gallup +      Obama      49.0       Romney      45.0           
          
09/05/2012 -
09/07/2012     Rasmussen +      Obama      46.0       Romney      44.0      
               
09/03/2012 -
09/07/2012     Reuters/Ipsos *      Obama      46.0       Romney      44.0      
               
09/04/2012 -
09/06/2012     Rasmussen      Romney      46.0       Obama      45.0      
               
08/31/2012 -
09/06/2012     Gallup        Obama        48.0       Romney      45.0      
               
09/04/2012 -
09/06/2012     American Research…      Romney      49.0       Obama      46.0      
               
09/02/2012 -
09/06/2012     Reuters/Ipsos *      Romney      45.0       Obama      44.0      
               
09/01/2012 -
09/05/2012     Reuters/Ipsos *      Romney      46.0       Obama      44.0      
               
08/30/2012 -
09/05/2012     Gallup +      Obama      47.0       Romney      46.0           
          
09/03/2012 -
09/05/2012     Rasmussen +      Romney      47.0       Obama      44.0           

This just in:

74% of Rotterdamny.net forum posters consider your facts to be lame.

You do realize that using google, you can get data that corroborates and disproves absolutely any topic.

Quoted from Libertarian4life

This just in:

74% of Rotterdamny.net forum posters consider your facts to be lame.

You do realize that using google, you can get data that corroborates and disproves absolutely any topic.

I didn't use Google.

He gets his talking points from HufPo, Salon and other TOP liberal sites.

Quoted from 1975

He gets his talking points from HufPo, Salon and other TOP liberal sites.

I posted the same  TIPP Poll data that you did Rusty.  
Did you get your information from HufPo, Salon or another TOP liberal site???
Duhhh!

All of the polls show that the race is extremely close - It is safe to say that the candidates are within the margin of error ( + or - 4%) of each other.   These polls don't factor in the undecided vote which some suggest is between 6 to 10% of the people likely to vote.  

In 1980, the undecided vote shifted in the last 4-7 days of the campaign to challenger Ronald Reagan and turned a close race into a rather convincing trouncing of Jimmy Carter by the former California Governor.  Most of the polling today seems to suggest that the undecideds are leaning towards Romney and if this continues that would give the former Massachusetts governor enough lift to win the popular vote.

Ultimately, the election will be decided in the Electoral College and many analysts are saying that it will come down to Ohio and Florida.  The fact that all of the "swing states" are states Obama won in 2008 and none are states that McCain won suggests that at best Obama can hope for a narrow victory in the Electoral College ---and at the moment that is too close to call or predict.

Obama  347
Romney 191






The graph above shows the electoral vote score for every day, counting, say, 46% to 45% as a
win for the candidate with 46%, even though this is really a statistical tie. The gray vertical lines
show the boundaries between the months.




The graph above shows the electoral votes again but omits the "barely" states. The electoral votes of a state only count in this graph if the candidate is ahead by more than the margin of error (about 5%). In other words, the states with white centers on the map, which are statistical ties, are omitted in the above graph.

Quoted from Box A Rox

The graph above shows the electoral votes again but omits the "barely" states. The electoral votes of a state only count in this graph if the candidate is ahead by more than the margin of error (about 5%). In other words, the states with white centers on the map, which are statistical ties, are omitted in the above graph.

Are these polls for 'likely voters' or 'registered voters'?  Big difference.  The 'likely voters' polls have it pretty much a statistical tie.  I predict a low turnout, and I believe that gives the advantage to Romney.

I'm still waiting to see the chart displaying polling data accuracy in predicting presidential elections.

  The graphs are made up of a composite of many polls.

From their website:

Quoted Text

Some polling companies give the results based on all adults they survey. Others include
only registered voters. Yet others include only likely voters, using their proprietary secret formula
for determining who is likely to vote based on questions like those above. Depending on exactly
how the voting questions are phrased and which category of respondents is included in the poll,
some systematic bias may be introduced. Some pollsters publish the results for likely voters and
all registered voters separately. This site uses likely voters if there is a choice (not often).

Quoted from Libertarian4life

I'm still waiting to see the chart displaying polling data accuracy in predicting presidential elections.

Most good polls give you a snapshot of what the electorate is thinking on the day the poll was taken.
Results are fluid and change daily.   Most don't predict what 'will be', only show what 'is' on the day
the poll was taken.   As in "if the election were held today, who would you vote for?"

Some polls show 'trends' that may lead you to a logical winner or loser but with out knowing what
will happen between the poll date and election day... it's just a guess.

CNN Lied?


The latest CNN/ORC poll released today shows a wider lead for President Obama than the previous CNN/ORC poll but it is doubly skewed. It massively under-samples independents while it also over-samples Democratic voters. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.

This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack Obama. This survey's sample includes 397 registered Republicans and 441 registered Democrats. But the survey included a total of 822 registered voters, leaving only 37 independent voters at most. The survey clearly under-sampled independent and Republican voters.

Among the Democrats survey, 97 percent favored Obama while three percent support Romney. The Republicans surveys chose Romney by a 96 percent to two percent margin. Those margins display a high degree of party loyalty in each party for its candidate, which is plausible in a campaign like this one where both sides are focusing heavily on boosting turnout among their base. Independents, who are massively under-sampled in this survey, support Romney by a 54 percent to 40 percent margin.

http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-would-lead-eight-unskewed-data-from-newest-cnn-orc-poll