Based on our analysis, Obama starts with a presumed base of 247 electoral votes, just 23 short of the magic number of 270 — but not all of them are truly secure. Romney starts with a much firmer but not ironclad 206. The election will be decided mainly in seven states with 85 toss-up votes.
To show how little the presidential campaign turf has changed since 2008, all seven of the toss-ups are states that Obama won in 2008. Obama captured 28 states then (plus the District of Columbia), and in only eight of those did he win by less than 10 percentage points. Given Obama’s middling approval ratings this year and the uncertainty in the economy, the two states where his 2008 triumphs were closest — Indiana and North Carolina — are now favored to go to Romney, and the other six states where Obama won by less than 10 points are toss-ups. Obama won the seventh toss-up, Nevada, by about 12.5 percentage points.
(U.Va. Center for Politics)
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
It's going to be a nail-biter, but unless the Economy tanks or gas goes to $5 a gal, its Obama's election to lose. Those toss up states are mostly in the eastern and central time zones, I bet we have a winner before the 11 o'clock news.
The biggest wildcard that no one seems to know for sure about? Israel and what they will or won't do about Iran.
"Arguing with liberals is like playing chess with a pigeon; no matter how good I am at chess, the pigeon is just going to knock out the pieces, crap on the board, and strut around like it is victorious." - Author Unknown
It's going to be a nail-biter, but unless the Economy tanks or gas goes to $5 a gal, its Obama's election to lose. Those toss up states are mostly in the eastern and central time zones, I bet we have a winner before the 11 o'clock news. The biggest wildcard that no one seems to know for sure about? Israel and what they will or won't do about Iran.
As with most presidential elections, an issue or incident will occur in the closing weeks of the election that could be a game changer. The issues we are discussing now will be tired by November and a NEW topic usually is a dramatic scramble by the candidates. Iran, Israel, some sex scandal, a presidential aid with his hand in the cookie jar, Political dirty tricks, either real or imagined... a terrorist attack, or a terrorist captured, a stock market disaster or surge... There is usually something interesting to cause jubilation/panic in the minds of both parties.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
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