When we go to the polls 2 years from now to vote for our  House Representative  --- there is the
distinct possibility for some "interesting"  congressional contests.

New York stands to lose 2 House seats --  646,952 will be the population average for the new district
lines that will be drawn in 2011.

If we start with the current 21st District  which includes  all of Albany, Schenectady, Montgomery
and Schoharie counties -- and parts of Fulton and Rensselaer counties   ....  that district will have to
expand in geographic area  ....   either north, south, east, or west or some combination of the four
directions---  

The district that will change the most is probably the 20th which goes from goes from Essex county up north through Warren, Saratoga, Washington, Rensselaer and Columbia counties to Dutchess county
in south  ---- then it goes west through Greene and Delaware counties to Otsego county in the west.

The 19th and 22nd CDs to the south, the 24th to the west, and the 23rd to the north all have
Democratic incumbents .. as of today ..  as do the 21st and 20th

Depending on the outcome of the 2010 elections  -- IF all 5 Democratic incumbents are reelected ..
there is almost 100% likelihood that 2 of the incumbents would end up in the same Congressional
District after the lines are redrawn for the 2012 elections.

If Gibson wins the 20th and the other 4 Dems retain their seats...  which of the Democrats will  the
New York State legislature pit  Mr. Gibson against.    Since Gibson lives in Columbia county -- one can
envision Columbia county being  redistricted into  either the current 21st, current 19th, or the current
22nd.    

There are many more potential scenarios  ---  at the moment   Tonko (21st) and Hinchey (22nd) are
almost guaranteed reelection   --- and Owen (23rd), Acuri (24th), Hall (19th) and Murphy 20th are
all very tight races  with the GOP having a good shot at winning at least 2 of the 4 seats.

So .. long story short ... the results of the 2010 election will likely have a great influence on HOW the new district lines are drawn next year -- and the new lines could set upsome interesting Congressional
races in 2012.

PS -- all of this makes who controls the NYS Assembly and NYS Senate after tomorrow even
MORE important

Besides throwing  Tonko and Gibson in the same district   .. the state legislature could throw Hinchey and
newly elected Nan Hayworth into the same district  .............or throw Hayworth and Gibson into the same
district and force a GOP Primary for the House seat in 2012.


Also, I have heard "through the grapevine" that Chris Gibson is being courted to take on Kirsten Gillibrand for
the US Senate in 2012.