Daily Presidential Tracking Poll Monday, December 28, 2009
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 28% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12 (see trends).
Expectations that Congress will pass health care reform in the coming year soared following the Senate’s Christmas Eve vote. Sixty-seven percent (67%) now expect it to pass. Still, most voters continue to oppose the health care plan and 63% believe it will raise the cost of care. Most voters (54%) also believe they personally will be worse off if the health care plan passes. Just 25% think they will be better off. A commentary by Michael Barone notes that it been more than 150 years since such significant but unpopular legislation was passed through Congress on a partisan basis.
Thirty-eight percent (38%) now believe the economic stimulus plan passed earlier this year has hurt the economy. Just 30% believe it helped. That’s the first time since the legislation passed that a plurality offered a negative assessment.
The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook.
Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That’s the first time in more than two weeks the President’s overall approval has topped 46%. Fifty-two percent (52%) now disapprove of the President’s performance.
79% Say Another Terror Attack Likely Within Year Monday, December 28, 2009
A Nigerian Muslim’s attempt to blow up an airliner landing in Detroit on Christmas Day has Americans much more concerned about the dangers of another terrorist attack.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 79% of U.S. voters now think it is likely there will be another terrorist attack in the United States in the next year. That’s a 30-point jump from the end of August when just 49% of Americans felt that way. The current level of concern is even higher than it was in the summer of 2007 when 70% considered an attack likely. In December 2008, 58% said an attack was likely.
The new number includes 42% who say another terrorist attack in America is very likely within the next year.
Just 12% of voters now say another terrorist attack on the United States in the next year is not very or not at all likely.
The current survey was conducted among likely voters and the August survey was conducted among all adults. While there is often a modest difference in results for these two segments of the population, the difference is typically in the 3-5 percentage point range. So while the current numbers are not precisely comparable to the August results, the 30 percentage point jump in concern reflects a significant change.
“Political Winners” Circle Filled by Figures Close to ObamaAmericans divided in labeling Sarah Palin as a political winner or loser by Lydia Saad
PRINCETON, NJ -- In Americans' estimation, the top three political winners of 2009 are all women closely linked with the Obama administration: Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Sonia Sotomayor. Among these, Michelle Obama has the broadest support with 73% calling her a "winner" in U.S. politics this year and 21% a "loser." However, Clinton's rating is nearly as positive.
This Christmas, 78% of Americans Identify as Christian Over time, fewer Americans identify as Christian; more have no religious identity by Frank Newport
PRINCETON, NJ -- This Christmas season, 78% of Americans identify with some form of Christian religion, a proportion that has been declining in recent decades. The major reason for this decline has been an increase in the percentage of Americans claiming no religious identity, now at 13% of all adults.
The trend results are based on annual averages of Gallup's religious identity data in America that stretch back over 60 years. One of the most significant trends documented during this period is the substantial increase in the percentage of American adults who don't identify with any specific religion. In 1948, only 2% of Americans did not identify with a religion. That percentage began to rise in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Eleven years ago, in 1998, 6% of Americans did not identify with a religion, a number that rose to 10% by 2002. This year's average of 13% of Americans who claim no religious identity is the highest in Gallup records.
The percentage of Americans who identify as Catholic, Protestant, or some other non-Catholic Christian faith has been concomitantly decreasing over the years. This suggests that one of the major patterns of religious transition in America in recent decades has been the shift from identification as Christian to the status of having no specific religious identification.
In 1948, 91% of Americans identified with a Christian faith. Twenty years ago, in 1989, 82% of Americans identified as Christian. Ten years ago, it was 84%. This year, as noted, 78% of all American adults identify with a Christian faith.
There has also been a slight increase in the percentage of Americans who identify with a religion that is not specifically classified as Christian. Sixty years ago, for example, 4% of Americans identified with a non-Christian religion. By 1989, 9% of Americans were in this non-Christian religion category, the same percentage as today.
Election 2012: Nebraska Senate Health Care Vote Puts Nelson 30 Points Down in Reelection Bid
Tuesday, December 29, 2009 The good news for Senator Ben Nelson is that he doesn’t have to face Nebraska voters until 2012.
If Governor Dave Heineman challenges Nelson for the Senate job, a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows the Republican would get 61% of the vote while Nelson would get just 30%. Nelson was reelected to a second Senate term in 2006 with 64% of the vote.
Nelson's health care vote is clearly dragging his numbers down. Just 17% of Nebraska voters approve of the deal their senator made on Medicaid in exchange for his vote in support of the plan. Overall, 64% oppose the health care legislation, including 53% who are Strongly Opposed. In Nebraska, opposition is even stronger than it is nationally.
Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters in the state believe that passage of the legislation will hurt the quality of care, and 62% say it will raise costs.
The House and Senate have passed different versions of the health care legislation and now will try to agree on a plan to pass early in 2010. Because every Democratic vote is required to pass the legislation in the Senate, Nelson’s vote is essential. If Nelson votes to block final passage of the health care plan, he would still trail Heineman but would be in a much more competitive situation.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 26% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15 (see trends).
Thirty-six percent (36%) give the President good or excellent marks for handling the economy while 47% think he’s done a poor job in this arena.
As 2009 comes to an end, the private sector and public sector are experiencing two different economies. Government employees tend to believe the economy is getting better while those in the private sector hold the opposite view. That’s a big change from the beginning of the year when those on the public payroll were a bit more pessimistic than private sector workers.
The economic confidence of small business owners held steady in December following a big drop in November. Fifty-two percent (52%) of those owners say conditions are getting worse for their business and 51% experienced cash flow difficulties within the past 90 days. A third of small business owners say they do not intend to retire.
The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook.
Overall, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.
Seventy-nine percent (79%) now say another terrorist attack is at least somewhat likely within a year, up thirty points in the wake of the Christmas Day airline attack in Detroit. Forty-six percent (46%) say that airport security procedures are not strict enough. That’s up 13 points.
Expectations Soar for Passage of Health Care Plan, But Most Still Oppose It Monday, December 28, 2009 Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters nationwide now expect that health care reform legislation will pass this year. That’s up from 49% before the Senate passed its version of the legislation on Christmas Eve - and by far the highest level of expectation yet measured.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey, conducted on Sunday, finds that just 22% now consider passage of the plan unlikely.
However, while expectations for passage have risen dramatically, support for the plan has not. Just 40% of voters nationwide now favor it while 55% are opposed. Those figures are essentially unchanged from a week ago. This is the sixth straight week with support for the legislation between 38% and 41% (see question wording and trends). As has been the case throughout the debate, those who feel strongly about the issue are more likely to be opposed. Just 21% of voters Strongly Favor the plan while 43% are Strongly Opposed.
December 29, 2009 Prior to Bomb Scare, Worry About Terrorism at 39% in U.S.
As of November of this year, public split on Obama’s handling of terrorismby Elizabeth MendesWASHINGTON, D.C. -- In a Dec. 11-13 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted just two weeks before the thwarted Christmas Day bomb attempt aboard Northwest Airlines' Detroit-bound flight 253, 39% of Americans reported being very or somewhat worried that they or someone in their family will become a victim of terrorism.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -16 (see trends).
Confidence in the War on Terror has fallen following the Christmas Day airline attack. For the first time since October 2007, the number who believe the terrorists are winning has reached 30%. Just 36% believe the U.S. and its allies are winning.
Seventy-eight percent (78%) say it’s at least somewhat likely that the proposed health care reform legislation will cost more than projected. Eighty-one percent (81%) also believe passage of the legislation is at least somewhat likely to lead to higher middle class taxes and 68% believe it will increase the federal budget deficit.
The belief that what happens in Congress really matters has jumped since the health care debate began. Seventy-four percent (74%) now believe that legislation being considered will have a significant impact on their life.
The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook.
Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove.
In Nebraska, just 17% approve of the Medicaid deal cut by Senator Ben Nelson to secure his vote on health care reform. Nelson is now down by 30 points in an early look at his 2012 Reelection Bid. Republicans now lead by five points on the Generic Congressional Ballot. That’s a big change from the seven-point lead enjoyed by Democrats when President Obama was inaugurated.
78% Believe Health Care Plan Will Cost More Than Projected
Wednesday, December 30, 2009 Seventy-eight percent (78%) of voters nationwide say it’s at least somewhat likely that the health care reform legislation working its way through Congress will cost more than projected. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 14% believe the costs are not likely to exceed projections.
Eighty-one percent (81%) also think passage of the legislation is at least somewhat likely to lead to higher middle-class taxes.
The survey finds that 68% believe the legislation will increase the federal budget deficit. Only 11% say the program will achieve its stated goal of deficit reduction.
Generic Congressional Ballot GOP Lead Slips to Five on Generic Ballot
Tuesday, December 29, 2009 Republican candidates now lead Democrats by five points in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.
The new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.
Support for GOP candidates slipped just one point over the past week, but support for Democrats rose two points.
Despite the decline, the latest numbers highlight a remarkable change in the political environment during 2009. When President Obama was inaugurated, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point advantage on the Generic Ballot. That means the GOP has made a net gain of 12-percentage points over the course of the year. Support for Democrats has declined four points since the inauguration while Republican support is up eight points.
The Republican gains began in February when Republicans in the House unanimously opposed the President’s Stimulus Plan. At that time, Republican gains came almost entirely from the GOP base. Currently, just 30% of voters believe the stimulus plan helped the economy while 38% believe it hurt.
The two parties were very close on the Generic Ballot throughout the spring and Republicans pulled ahead for good in late June. Those gains for the GOP took place after the health care debate began and unaffiliated voters began to shift away from the Democrats. Only 40% of voters currently favor the health care plan and 55% are opposed. Most Democrats favor it while most Republicans and unaffiliated voters are opposed. Democrats view health care reform as the top priority for President Obama but most Republicans and unaffiliated voters say reducing the deficit is more important.
A month-by-month review of the President’s Job Approval ratings shows that they also began to tumble during the summer months.
In November, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to a four-year low but is still more than the number who call themselves Republicans.
While reviewing these trends, it’s important to remember that the numbers could shift in 2010 just as much as they did in 2009. When the health care debate in Congress comes to an end, Democrats will have the opportunity to begin damage control efforts.
Importance of Issues Economy, Government Ethics Tops on Voters’ Minds
Tuesday, December 29, 2009 The economy barely beats out government ethics and corruption as the issue of number one importance to most voters this month. Health care and taxes are a little more on voters’ minds, too.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 81% of voters consider the issue of the economy as very important, topping a list of 10 key electoral issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. But 79% say the same of government ethics and corruption.
In October, for the first time in two years, voters rated government ethics and corruption as more important than the economy. Voters viewed the two issues evenly in November and December 2007 before placing a higher priority on the economy starting in January 2008. Last month, however, the economy bounced back into the lead.
74% Say Congress’ Current Work Will Have ‘Significant’ Impact
Tuesday, December 29, 2009 Voters feel far more strongly than they have in over two years that legislation currently being debated in Congress would have a significant impact on their lives, and they’re well aware of which party is in charge.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 74% of voters believe that to be true of legislation now before Congress. That’s up from 52% in June 2008.. The perception that what Congress is doing will have a significant impact is even higher today than the 65% level measured in January 2007 when Democrats first re-gained control of Congress.
This comes at a time when two-thirds of voters say health care reform is likely to pass but most voters oppose the legislation. It’s important to note that the question does not specify what legislation is currently being debated by Congress.
Republicans and voters not affiliated with either major party are more concerned about what Congress is up to than Democrats. This is consistent with a wide range of other polling showing that Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats about the upcoming midterm elections.
46% Say Airport Security Procedures Not Strict Enough
Monday, December 28, 2009 Following the failed terrorist attempt to blow up an airliner landing in Detroit on Christmas Day, Americans are a lot less critical of airport security procedures.
In fact, a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 46% of U.S. voters believe current airport security procedures are not strict enough, a 13-point increase from April 2008. Just 11% say they are too strict.
Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters believe the current level of airport security is about right. Women feel more strongly than men that U.S. airport security procedures are not strict enough.
Republicans are more inclined to agree than Democrats and voters not affiliated with either major party.
These new findings are explained in part by the belief of 79% of voters nationwide that another terrorist attack in the United States is likely within the next year. That’s a 30-point jump from the end of August when just 49% of Americans felt that way.
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