Never too early to start analyzing the 2012 US Senate Elections - especially with the Senate virtually split down the middle,


In 2012 -  33 US Senate seats will be up for election  ---

23 currently held by Democrats - including Kirsten Gillibrand of NY -- yep, she has to run again
in 2 years  ......   8 Democratic incumbents may be vulnerable in Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana,Nebraska,Utah, Virginia .... and Manchin who held onto Byrds seat in West Virginia in the 2010 -- has to run again in 2012.

9 by Republicans  - Some say Nevada's Ensign is vulnerable .. and Texas' Hutchinson

1 by an Indpendent - Joe Lieberman of Conn .. will he retire ??  this seat is a toss up whether he
runs again or not

Putting on my "political analyst cap"   --- and looking at the 2012 US Senate elections in light
of the 2010  US Senate elections:

1)  in the next 12 to 18 months - look to see which of the incumbents decide to bow out of the 2012 contest ... this will set the stage for the 2012 contest

2) since so many  (24 of the 33) of the seats up for election are held by Democrats ... I expect the GOP will be on the offensive and Democrats on the defensive.   With the Senate at 49 Dem - 46 GOP - and 3 still undecided  as of  noon on 10/03/2010 ... even if the Dems pick up all 3 undecided ...  the GOP would only have to gain 5 seats in 2012 to retake the US Senate.   There are  - at least - 8 vulnerable Democratic seats  (as of this morning) up for election in 2012.  

3) I would expect that Reid will be replaced as Senate Majority Leader in January 2011 ... his
reelection victory was too slim and he is too much of a "lightening rod" to lead effectively into the
next election cycle.

4) I would expect that the prospect for a contested Democratic Presidential Primary Season has
increased ....  IF the economy continues to remain sluggish and IF the public perception that America is headed in the wrong direction carries well into 2011 .....   some nationally prominent Democrats will
not only see this as an opportunity to run for the White House -- but a necessity to run for the White House so as to keep control of the US Senate after  January 1, 2013.

By the way --   the 2014 US Senate cycle will have  20 Democratic seats and 13 GOP seats up for
election.      While it is way to early to say which seats are vulnerable  ... I noticed  2 things about the
seats up in that cycle    #1)  those seats currently held by GOP Senators are from traditionally GOP
stronghold states -- thus  lessening the chances that they will be vulnerable;  and #2)  a great many
of the Senators up for reelection will be in their 70's by 2014 -- raising the prospect of a good number
of voluntary retirements  --- which would create  "open seat contests".