... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning...
The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Watch for east central New York... southern Vermont... western Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut... which is in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning.
Potential liquid equivalent amounts of precipitation could exceed 1 to 2 inches. This could result in over 7 inches of snow... over a half inch of ice... or more than an inch of sleet by the time the storm ends Friday morning.
Low pressure will develop in the southeastern U.S. Wednesday night... and track northeast Thursday to the mid Atlantic region... then by Thursday night across... or just east of New England... eventually into southeastern Canada Friday. The low pressure will rapidly strengthen as it tracks northeast... and draws in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream
Based on the range of possible tracks of the storm... and the cold air that will be entrenched through much of the duration of the storm... heavy precipitation will fall as snow... sleet and freezing rain. Even with the low confidence in the storm track... the storm is already beginning to form in the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi River valley. So... there is high confidence that a strong storm will form and track somewhere through or just offshore the northeastern U.S.
At this time... the best chance for all snow exists from the Adirondacks... western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie valley... through the Lake George and Saratoga regions to the southern Green Mountains of Vermont. The best chances for significant ice and sleet exists from the eastern Catskills through the Mid Hudson valley... northwestern Connecticut and southern Berkshires of Massachusetts. The northern Catskills... capital district... and northern Berkshires could see a mix of snow... sleet and freezing rain.
It should be noted that this storm is still very early in its development stages... and there is still a wide range of possible storm tracks... that could change the expected precipitation types for all regions as the storm gets closer. However... it is important for all interests to stay updated with the latest weather information through Thursday. Whatever regions do get impacted with the snow... freezing rain and sleet... there will likely be enough precipitation to have a major impact on travel and potentially damage trees and power lines.
A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
SIGNIFICIANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE from late Wednesday night through Friday morning. WINTER STORM WATCH is now in effect for all of eastern New York and western New England from Thursday morning through Friday morning.. The scenario is complex and far from clear at this point as the evolution, track, and intensity of an upper level storm coming out of the southwest this evening is highly uncertain. The range of possibilities at this time range from a miss, to a major ice or mixed precipitation storm, to a heavy snow storm across parts or all of the region. Timing is also in question as this storm could begin as early as Wednesday night or hold off to as late as Thursday afternoon.. . Best Guess Forecast Rain from the system (an approaching cold front) currently affecting the region ends as a minor amount of mixed snow and sleet Wednesday afternoon or evening, leaving the region generally dry through Wednesday night. The cold front stalls to the region's south Thursday morning allowing a strenghtening low pressure system to develop over the southeast to move north to just off shore Thursday afternoon. Initially shallow cold air over the region, with warm air lingering aloft, will support a period of sleet and freezing rain, with rain possible in the mid Hudson valley, and snow over the Adirondacks. Eventual cooling through a deep layer of the atmosphere would cause a change to all snow as the storm pulls out later Thursday night into Friday morning in most if not all of the region.. . Because of the wide ranging precipitation types possible, no reliable forecast on snow or ice accumulations can be made at this time. When the scenario becomes more clear, more detailed forecasts will be issued..
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